The busiest stretch of the shipping year starts about now. Retailers are importing holiday inventory, e-commerce volume is climbing, and customs officers are looking at more containers and parcels than at any other time. That is also when counterfeiters count on volume to hide in. Here is what CBP's most recent full-year numbers show, and what to watch over the next two months.
The Baseline: FY2025
According to CBP trade data reported by Air Cargo Week in April, total trade seizures reached 57,360 in fiscal 2025, up 18.4 percent from 48,444 the year before. Intellectual property rights seizures were the biggest driver: 25,079, up 22.2 percent from 20,516. The estimated manufacturer's suggested retail price of seized IPR goods rose from about $5.5 billion to about $7.4 billion. Import safety seizures also rose, to 9,166 with a combined value of $137.4 million, up from 6,888 worth $60.6 million.
CBP values counterfeit seizures at what the genuine item would cost at retail, not what the fake sold for or what the brand actually lost. A rising MSRP total can reflect more seizures, higher-priced goods being copied, or a few very large cases. It is a useful trend line, not a measure of economic damage.
Why Peak Season Matters
Three dynamics make the fourth quarter different. Small parcels and express shipments, which are harder to screen at scale, spike with online orders. Freight forwarders and importers who are new or temporary appear to meet demand, which gives networks more shell-company options. And the goods themselves shift toward the gifts people buy most: apparel, footwear, handbags, electronics, toys, cosmetics and medication. Several of those categories are also safety issues, not only trademark issues, because counterfeit chargers, toys and pharmaceuticals can injure people.
What to Watch
Look for CBP and Homeland Security Investigations announcements of large seizures at express-consignment hubs and major seaports, public warnings to holiday shoppers, and any shift in the mix between consumer goods and products with safety risks. Over the next year, the FY2026 IPR statistics will show whether the FY2025 jump was a one-time spike or a trend. For individual ports, the BorderTrend Port Directory lets you check the location, scale and recent headlines for a given gateway, and the live feed tracks counterfeit and cargo fraud stories as they publish.
Practical tip for shoppers and small importers: very low prices on branded goods, sellers with no verifiable business address, and listings that avoid showing the brand's own packaging are the usual warning signs. Source figures: Air Cargo Week summary of CBP FY2025 trade statistics; see CBP's own IPR seizure statistics for the primary data.